On Competitive Balance

Keith and I were engaging in a text conversation about competitive balance and MLB versus English Premier League soccer. We were discussing the news that Chelsea is interested in Liverpool striker Fernando Torres when I made the following throwaway comment: "well, EPL is the original MLB when it comes to money. Although MLB has more competitive balance."

Well, I only thought it was a throwaway comment. Keith of course hates baseball, so this led to a discussion, which led me to this thought:

How do you frame competitive balance?

What defines it?

Keith and I, two avid sports fans, two guys keenly interested in world futbol, came from this concept in totally different directions. I am going to lay both lines of thought out briefly, although I probably won't do Keith's justice.

I argue that MLB has more competitive balance than not only the EPL, but at least comparable to every other American sports league. I think this is true for these reasons:

• baseball has had many winners in the last decade - 8 in 10 seasons if my memory serves correctly (Yankees-2000, Dbacks-2001, Angels-2002, Marlins-2003, Red Sox-2004, White Sox-2005, Cardinals-2006, Red Sox-2007, Phillies-2008, Yanks-2009).
• baseball also had by my unofficial count 23 of 30 teams that made the playoffs in the first decade of the 21st century (the lone clubs to not make the postseason - Bucs, Reds, Nats, Royals, O's, Blue Jays, Rangers).
• baseball has a playoff where anything can happen

Keith's reason against baseball (again, I apologize for any overarching simplicity) was that, in any given year, there are only approximately 5 teams that can win it all. When pressed to name pre-season favorite this year, I would name the following: Yanks, Red Sox (those 2 every year), Rays, Phillies, Cardinals, Twins. I could only name 6, and that might come from having played almost two months already, and it also might come from the way I think about baseball.

In any event, this leads me to the question that I hope will solicit comments - what exactly is competitive balance? How should Keith and I frame this argument?

2010 Minnesota Twins

I need an outlet to describe my jubiliation after a 5 month advent of sorts. Baseball is freaking here y'all! Without further ado, here are the top five developments in my favorite organization over the offseason that have me busting with anticipation. Busting, Jerry, I'm busting!

5) The Projected Bounceback of Francisco Liriano (Gardy name = Frankie)

I was listening to a Baseball Today podcast featuring Jayson Stark (4/9), who astutely said that out of anyone on the Twins staff, Liriano is the guy who can win on stuff alone. Now, I am a huge fan of Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn trying to paint corners and induce soft contact, but there is something sexy about stuff, no? Liriano was so-so last night, putting up a quality start but walking 5 and only striking out 3. I am interested to see if he will dominate, however in June, July and August when that slider is not stifled by the cold midwestern air. On a side note, the jury is very much out on whether he can bounce back mentally from any rough starts in April and May as he seems to be his own worst enemy.

4) Gardy potentially turning his back on Nick Punto Hollywood Hogan style

Minnesota fans can probably think of nothing more unlikely than Ron Gardenhire benching LNP (Little Nicky Punto) in favor of playing Brendan Harris. Gardy is an "aw shucks," "gettin after it," "play your butt off" kind of guy, and in his mind, no one personifies those plucky traits more than LNP. If you want to see diving stops at third, sliding headfirst through first base and some nifty baserunning, than LNP is your guy. Unfortunately, you're going to have many botched sacrifice bunts, pop-ups with one out-man on third situations, and many many routine fly balls to left. In a straight up numbers comparison, Harris seemingly hasn't shown much greater offensive prowess, and has had a similar number of ABs. However, his proclivity for the clutch hit, his potential for 15-20 HR from that number 9 spot and his not tugging at Gardy's shirttail every time the camera pans to him on this bench makes me favor Harris.

3) Umm...Target Field?

Did you hear the Twins have a new ballpark? It doesn't have a huge off-white Teflon roof covering it. The seats face home plate. The concourses are wide enough that you don't have to plan your exit strategy in the sixth inning. For Pete's sake just look at the thing!!! Look at the food!!! I was lucky enough to score tickets to the home opener on Monday (I've never been to a home opener!) and I more excited than this boy.

2) Bye-bye Carlos!

The organization traded Carlos Gomez straight up for J.J. Hardy. I'll let you discover the beauty of this on your own. Let's just say look at the stats in August. You'll understand. You just will.

1) Joe and Denard

Knowing that your club has signed the best overall player in the American League until 2018 is like sitting down to your fifth delectable dinner in a row and just having the satisfaction that you married well and you're going to be having Shrimp pasta dishes and Pork Tenderloin and fine bisques regularly for a REALLY long time. Knowing that you also signed the best kept secret as far as AL leadoff hitters go for peanuts so you can afford the shrimp, pork, and bisque makes your smile grow that much more.

Twins are on the rise baby! Can't Wait...

Football coaches should take more chances

Only vaguely related but both are interesting reads:

1.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Deconstructing-The-grisly-demise-of-Tressel-Ba?urn=ncaaf,189322

"Jim Tressel is a dinosaur, and like all dinosaurs, not like for this world. And if I was the multi-talented Terrelle Pryor, stuck in the straitjacket of the OSU offense, I'd be thinking long and hard about where I might transfer to."



2.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/
and
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html





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The connection? Obviously there are other factors at play, but Pete "big balls" Carroll has beaten Jim Tressel yet again. Was anyone surprised?

I know this is oversimplifying it, but its a blog: why don't coaches go for it more often on 4th down? Why don't they generally take more risks, when they see coaches like Carroll and Belichick (I know, he's a cheater) succeed year in and out?

My guess is two factors:
1. Lack of job security. If you lose a game because you took a risk other coaches normally don't take, it's easy to point to that moment and say you blew it. If you played conservative and lost, its too easy for the fans and media to say "they were just outplayed."
2. Generally, statistical analysis in football is behind baseball at this point. I'm not sure if this will change, but there is a fairly conservative organizational culture around football, especially in the NFL I'd argue.

Dying a thousand deaths

My wife doesn't understand how I watch football. She doesn't get the therapeutic value of going over every possible bad and worse scenario that could transpire for your team over the course of a game. She doesn't see that a blow to the gut isn't as bad if you see it coming. And if your envisioned bad scenario doesn't play out, and your team is victorious...it's like you've won twice over.

So I watch. And I bite my nails, and I assume the worse. All to soften the ultimate blow of defeat, and to enhance the elation of victory. That is why I die a thousand deaths during the course of a game, and thousands upon thousands of deaths in the course of a season.

But when my beloved Irish lose 38-34 in the Big House, after erasing an 11 point deficit, and taking a 3 point lead on the Statue of Liberty play, only to give up the winning TD with 11 seconds left, against a freshman QB well...Well you just feel dead inside.

Go Giants.

It's Official

The Pirates have clinched their 17th consecutive losing season. This is noteworthy, and not simply because this blog is somewhat Pittsburgh-centric. Their string of futility is now etched in the record books.

So, my optimism at the future of the Pirates isn't only based on me being a glass-half-full guy. During no point in the past decade was I under any illusion that the Pirates were headed in the right direction. That is until now.

During the past two seasons they've drafted well and have traded aging, expensive talent for good prospects. While I believe 2010 will be another record setting year with their 18th consecutive losing season, I think that streak will break in 2011 with a team right around .500. I'll go on the record predicting an 82 win season in 2011. Maybe that is the glass-half-full part speaking. Who knows.

Josh, Chad. Your thoughts?

One of those times when you just scratch your head and say "really"?

So like most people who work long hours, I catch the headline stories in sports in various ways. Sure, I check the major websites for the headlines, but many of us know where to get the real news: PTI.



For those who are unfamiliar, PTI is short for Pardon The Interruption and is a show where two longtime journalists shout absurdly at each other as if there was a relationship between volume and the coherence of a particular view. I try to catch it on my DVR because while I may already know what tonight's pitching matchups are, PTI is great at informing me of who the next athlete to have a breakout reality tv series will be. As someone who doesn't watch reality tv, I need Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser to remind me that truth really is stranger than fiction.



During today's episode, viewers learned that Tom Brady has joined the ranks of Tiger Woods and LeBron James and now has a logo - often a smart business move. Are you ready to see what the brilliant graphic designers Tom Brady hired came up with?










Like the aforementioned Lebron James, Brady was able to integrate both his initials and his number into the logo. So, you may be asking, how does a guy like Brady end up with a logo that looks like the Wal-Mart knock-off brand of the real athletic gear you really wanted when you were a kid. Trust me. I dealt with my fair share of knock-off stuff as a kid and can spot those cheesy logos in a second. And this is one of them.



So, how does Tom Brady, who without the heroics of David Tyree, would have an enviable collection of four Super Bowl rings, the guy who can pose in GQ without losing his credibility as a man's man, the guy who perfectly pulls off the stylish haven't-shaved-in-three-days stubble, the guy who's married to the stunning Gisele Bundchen, the guy who women want to be with and men want to be - how can a guy so suave come up with a logo that looks like it belongs on the shorts of an unwashed child who can't afford Nike shorts because dad spent the month's rent money on lottery tickets?



I have no answers for this riddle. Personally, I think Pam Beesly, who failed out of the Pratt Institute, could have fashioned a better logo in half the time for a fraction of the cost. But maybe I'm mixing fiction and reality with that assertion.



The bottom line is, will this embarrassingly bad logo affect Tom Brady's play? If he struggles, I'll insist it's the logo that's weighing him down, not the shoulder or the knee. But that's just me.

Confessions of an NBA Scorekeeper

Here is a great article over at deadspin.com.

We often think of stats and box scores as sacred. We study them every morning either in the paper or on computer screens. The buzz at the water coolers is about who kept the double-double streak going last night. How many assists did Chris Paul have?

It's incredibly deflating to hear how subjective all of this is. Stat-taking is subject to the whims of the stat-keepers who, apparently, have little to no oversight. Double digit rebounds and assists are sexy and are encouraged from the top down.

Here are some highlights:

"Teams have a legitimate, vested interest in stats being inflated, just like the league does," Alex says. "Ten assists is way more interesting than eight assists. As humans, those are more appealing and interesting numbers. The NBA benefits and every team benefits from bigger, flashier numbers."

......

As Alex remembers it now, Olajuwon had a double-double with nine blocks at some point during the fourth quarter. "Someone in management came to me and said, basically, Thou shalt give Hakeem Olajuwon a triple-double. Come hell or high water, he's getting a triple-double. I'm like, uh, OK."

.......

He goes on to admit that one night he gave Nick Van Exel 23 assists, just for the fun of it. He was blown away not only by the lack of reprimand, but by the attention Van Exel got for it. The court side commentators praised him for his adept play. The national media went nuts over his huge game.

It's a good read and at least a little surprising.