Rebuilding the Bucs

One of a negative Pirate fan’s greatest weapons in his mind is to say the following: “…same old Bucs. We do the same thing every year. Trade the good players away for minor leaguers. I’m not going to follow them anymore.”

This is the type of criticism that I hate, because it usually comes reflexively without looking at the facts of the situation. To counter these claims, we need to start with a couple of salient points about how to win baseball games in a big way. Here is how you have to win in the MLB:

• Drafting and development is the key. You have to field a team of mostly homegrown players.
• Give the kids time in the majors to either sink or swim. You need to see what you have with what you’ve drafted and developed.
• After you’ve seen what you have, fill in the holes. This can be done through free agency or trades. The trade aspect is why you have to continually draft and develop well.
• Stay away from bad contracts. Perhaps much easier said than done.
• Keep your stars but choose wisely!

That’s it. That’s how you win. These steps are magnified for small market teams; the smaller the market/payroll, the more important these are. Now, let’s compare the Pirates performance in these ways under Dave Littlefield and Neal Huntingdon.

• Drafting and development – Littlefield’s failure in this key area is why the Bucs are in a position where they have to rebuild. First look at his first round picks. The only ones currently with the team are Paul Maholm and Andrew McCutchen. The Cutch pick was out of character for Littlefield; he was a high schooler with a lot of upside. The Maholm pick was more in line with his philosophy; college arms with low ceilings. Maholm represents the only success among these college arms; Bryan Bullington and Daniel Moskos represent the worst of these decisions. He also missed on Neil Walker (perhaps being blinded by the fact that Walker is a local product). Neal Huntingdon has only been in charge for two drafts. However, in his first draft he showed a willingness to go for upside and to pay overslot for top talent. This draft featured Pedro Alvarez as the top pick (who has been tearing it up at AA Altoona in July), but also contained lower round signability guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller and Wesley Freeman. All in all, the Bucs spent almost $10 million on the 2008 draft signees (which ranks in the top 5 in history). This year, the Bucs went even more extreme in the draft, taking a low risk, low upside guy at #4 overall (Tony Sanchez) in the hopes of spreading even more money around in the later rounds. They drafted a bunch of high upside high school arms like Trent Stevenson (signed away from LSU), Zach Von Rosenburg (currently committed to LSU), and Colton Cain (Texas). Allowing the draft budget to be the same as 2008, and giving the $2.5mm slot deal to Tony Sanchez, that leaves around $8 million for the Bucs to spend on getting these guys. It is important to get young arms en masse, because young arms routinely fail, all the time. The more arms you get, the more chances you have to succeed, and the more upside they have, the better chance you will unearth a star or two. It has to be said that Huntingdon is a big improvement over Littlefield in this area.
• Letting the kids play – Under Littlefield, the Bucs were famous for misevaluating talent and pulling the plug way too early on experiments. Nate McLouth sat on the bench for 2 years before the Huntingdon/Russell combo realized he deserved a full time chance. They ruined Zach Duke when Jim Tracy came aboard. Craig Wilson saw sporadic playing time for the likes of Raul Mondesi and Jeromy Burnitz. The tone under Huntingdon has changed dramatically. McCutchen was given a full blown opportunity at the MLB level once McLouth was traded; he has run with it and proven that he can be part of the core of the next great Bucs team. Young guys Snell and Gorzelanny were given plenty of time to sink or swim; they sunk. Steve Pearce and Lastings Milledge will play every day for the rest of the year. These are the kinds of things that will hasten the process of building a model organization.
• Filling in the holes – Huntingdon hasn’t reached this point yet, so he can’t be judged. But lets illustrate what he has to “live up” to. Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa, Chris Stynes, Raul Mondesi, and Matt Morris were just some of the guys that Littlefield handed big money to. For those Bucs fans that complain about payroll, wouldn’t you rather spend the money when McCutchen needs to sign a long term deal in 2012 than spend it on these chumps? The answer to this, if you are serious about winning, has to be yes.

Rebuilding a franchise takes a lot of effort, and it is vastly unpopular. That ultimately is why Cam Bonifay and Dave Littlefield never did it. Neal Huntingdon is one of the 3 most unpopular people in Pittsburgh right now, but he did the right thing. Trading the mediocre pieces we had right now for the best we could get would help speed up the process of rebuilding. Targeting young arms in large numbers is a great strategy to get some quality big league arms. Another strong trend is getting players who were previously well-regarded but for some reason cast aside and undervalued by their previous organizations (Milledge, Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Clement). With these trends, plus his proven proclivity for taking reasonable risks in the draft, means that Huntingdon is doing things the right way. Some moves will succeed, probably more will fail, but the plan is being executed, and that is the important thing right now. It is certainly different than anything else attempted in these 17 shameful years of losing.

5 Reasons to Watch: Bucs 2nd Half

Well, as we near baseball's midsummer classic (a week from today!), the evidence starts to pile up. This will not be a winning season for my beloved Bucs. They are currently 9 games under .500 and in last place in the division (although, quirkily, they are only 7.5 back of the Cards). However, I am feeling a lot more optimism for this team than I have in the July's of past. Why is that? Well, here are 5 reasons to watch the Bucs in August and September that will keep you optimistic:

1. The outfield situation - in the last two seasons, the Bucs have traded away four starting outfielders. This may be a technicality, since Nyjer Morgan shouldn't start on any contending team, but they still traded the guys who took the majority of the outfield at-bats. However, the situation here is exciting, looking from the major league roster to the depths of Single A West Virginia. McCutchen has been a revelation in center; he is going to be a star for the Bucs for at least the next 5+ years. Brandon Moss has been mostly a failure so far in RF, but he should still be given chances to produce over the next two months. Lastings Milledge has the pedigree (as a former No. 1 overall prospect of the Mets, as well as leading the Nats in HR and RBI last summer) and now should be given a chance; he won't be sent down to AAA after 7 starts like he was in April by the Nats (at least for performance purposes). Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, and Delwyn Young will still get opportunities to show what they can do by getting spot starts all over the outfield (although I'm not bullish on any of the three; Young has the most potential as a pinch hitter). In the minors, the Bucs have at least two potential above average major leaguers at Altoona in Gorkys Hernandez and Jose Tabata. Robbie Grossman is performing admirably for a 19-year-old rookie at West Virginia, and Starling Marte has shown a lot of promise in his 2 weeks with the team. Overall, the Bucs have greatly improved their outfield depth throughout the organization while sacrificing only one above average major league player (Jason Bay).

2. The 2009 Draft Class - the Bucs just went Moneyball on everyone's @$$ and people still aren't recovered. They drafted a bunch of high upside high school pitchers after quickly coming to terms with Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall. They will be tough signs, but it is worth watching the situation until August 17 to see who the Bucs are able to sign. Also, the Latin American market is clearing up, and it appears that the Bucs should be able to sign Miguel A. Sano. This will be the biggest international signing yet for Neal Huntingdon, who has signed players from all six baseball playing continents in his less than 2 years on the job. Seriously, he has signed players from: Holland, South Africa, Australia, India, Taiwan, and various Latin American countries.

3. The pitching depth - Maholm and Duke are probably locked in as #3-4 starters. Ohlendorf has sparkled at times this year, and he's almost a certified genius, but he isn't throwing as hard as he did last summer. Charlie Morton is the big variable; he has the best stuff of anyone on the staff but it needs to translate into major league success. His first four starts have been encouraging; he bears watching. In the minors, top prospect Brad Lincoln needs to prove his stuff at AAA Indy after being dominant in Altoona. If he does, he may earn a rotation spot for next April. Snell and Gorzo still have major league success in their backgrounds, if they can ever throw enough strikes again they could still be viable major league options. All of this coupled with the aforementioned draft has greatly improved the Bucs pitching situation; it should only get better from here.

4. The trade deadline - We don't have anyone who is going to bring back a ton this year, but Grabow, Ad. LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and Capps are all candidates to be dealt. The question about the middle infield lingers into 2010; if Sanchez and/or Wilson are traded, there aren't people to replace them yet in the system. Which of the guys will go, and how much will the fanbase cry over their departures?

5. The march to 82... - wins or losses? Well, it was said here earlier that it will be losses, and in truth it will probably be many more than 82. This will mark a 17th consecutive losing season, a record for American professional sports. There isn't too much more to say about this. It's inevitable. It will probably happen around September 13-14; all I hope is that its not against Houston, for some personal reasons.

Anyway, this second half should be more exciting for the Bucs than it normally is. This is a sign that the team is going in the right direction. Let's hope that Huntingdon and company keep it up to meet my 2012 deadline; they have to compete by then for me.

Saving the Bucs with Moneyball (Part 1)

I think the case could be made that the Pirates moves in the last two weeks have been filled with Moneyball principles, in a very good way. To me, this theory’s biggest argument is that there are market inefficiencies in baseball; traits that the market values too much, and other traits that the market doesn’t value nearly enough. A team in a financial position like the Pirates is at a great advantage when they can peg those inefficiencies ahead of the curve. From what I can remember, there are two areas in which the A’s were ahead of everybody else utilizing these inefficiency principles: on-base percentage and relief pitching. The Bucs, over the course of the last week, have tried to exploit different inefficiencies. To wit:

• Trading McLouth – the words that were continually thrown around to describe Nate were “All-Star” and “Gold Glove”. It has been covered ad nauseum that his Gold Glove was kind of a joke. I won’t make the argument that his All-Star appearance falls under the same umbrella; he deserved to make it with his great first half last year. However, to use this term to describe him is a bit misleading. Albert Pujols is an All-Star; Nate McLouth made an All-Star Game. There’s a difference to me, but the two are lumped together in media coverage and in the average fan’s mind. The baseball market overvalues terms like “All-Star” and “Gold Glove”. The Pirates exploited this.
• It seems that generally in baseball these days, prospects are also overvalued; teams are less willing to give up “the farm” in order to procure the best major league talent. The Bucs worked a trade that worked in the opposite order of this; of course the argument is that they didn’t get enough.
• To that last point, we look at the return for McLouth, where I believe the Bucs got commodities that are undervalued at the present time. We were able to get two pitchers; pitching is famously a rare commodity to receive in a trade. Further, the Bucs received a LHP who throws mid-90s. Lefties who throw this hard are also rare. In the outfield, they got a centerfielder; the famous axiom in baseball states that talent up the middle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, they were able to get three players that were undervalued by the Braves, because their positions are more difficult to fill.
• Along the lines of this, Gorkys Hernandez signals a trend toward which the Pirates are moving and which has been less valued in the majors: outfield defense. As Charlie at Bucs Dugout has recently shown, the improvement in the Bucs outfield defense has more or less made up for the loss of production by the Bucs OF with the bats. Trading McLouth and inserting McCutchen into the lineup improved what was already one of the top defensive outfields in the league (it could be argued it was the only way to improve on an already stellar outfield defense). Gorkys is a centerfielder who probably will be moved with McCutchen manning this position in Pittsburgh; he’s most likely the replacement for Nyjer (or whoever replaces Nyjer) whenever he is ready. Anything that he can develop with the bat over what Nyjer gives the Bucs (which is little) is a bonus.
  

These are all of the implications that Moneyball and its principles had on the trade that the Bucs completed last week. The average Bucs fan was irritated by this trade; it’s just the same old Pirates, trading big leaguers for prospects, shaving money off of the payroll. McCutchen will be traded in the offseason for four minor leaguers – I received an actual text that stated this. A couple of points about this, before moving on to the Bucs Moneyball draft:

• As stated before, McLouth was expendable. The Bucs actually were ahead of the curve because they traded him near his peak value. This is different from any trade in which the Pirates have previously engaged. Critics point to trades like the Bay and Nady trades of last season, the Kendall trade of 2004, the Aramis Ramirez trade in 2003, the Giles trade of 2004, and a litany of trades made in the 90s (when this procession of futility began). Let me comment on those each of those trades individually:

1. Jason Bay – not at his peak value; in fact, he was at about bottom value after the 2007 season (witness the package the Indians offered for him that offseason). The Bucs were lucky that he was as good as he was during 2008’s first half, increasing his value. At his age and contract situation, he was not a guy that was going to be part of the next great Bucco squad.
2. Xavier Nady – (and Marte if you want to throw him in) he was in the middle of his career season. His value was inflated, so by that standard, it is the most comparable to the McLouth trade. But Nady didn’t have a history of doing what he did in 2008; instead, his history was riddled with injury. It isn’t surprising that he hasn’t been anything like his April-June 2008 self since getting to the Yanks.
3. Brian Giles – he was on the decline, his contract was onerous, and the clouds of steroids have gathered over him since he left Pittsburgh. A return of Bay made this trade good enough.
4. Jason Kendall – one of the biggest contract blunders in a long list of contract blunders for the Bucs. They signed a singles hitter to a $60 million contract right before moving into PNC Park to signal a “commitment” to winning to the fanbase. The Bucs couldn’t get him and his bloated salary off the book quickly enough. This is the problem with allowing the fans to dictate moves made by the front office.
5. Aramis Ramirez - the only trade on this list that is indefensible and unacceptable. There is nothing I can say to make this trade feel better. The Bucs were under the gun to cut payroll immediately, and this is how they chose to do it. We could talk about the fact that A-Ram had been struggling for a season and a half before this trade, and how he wasn't at that time worth the salary that he was making. However, he was about 23 years old and to just give up on him was disappointing. There isn't really much else to say. When the current front office trades McCutchen for a decendant of Bobby Hill, then I will give up on them, but until then I will believe they won't make a trade like this.

This is just a short exposition on the Bucs, their front office, and how they are employing the techniques outlined in Moneyball. It is the first of a two part series. The second part will be posted some time this week, when I have a chance to hash out these thoughts, but it will focus on the draft, the minor leagues, international signings, and player development, in light of Moneyball principles.

On Game 7s, The City of Champions, 17 years of losing, and that motherf&*$#r Scottie Reynolds

Well, I'm sitting in my apartment mere hours after the Pens won the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1992. I'm not a huge hockey fan, but playoff hockey is alright by me; good enough to watch the Pens for two months (and grow my playoff beard). The situation in the city is crazy. I watched the first two periods at PNC Park while attending the other game between Pittsburgh and Detroit tonight (the Tigers prevailed, 3-1). It was unbelievable how many Detroit fans were at the ballpark, watching the game in the Hall of Fame Club in their lipstick-red Wings jerseys. I left after the 2nd period, traversing downtown unaware of the bomb threat at the corner of Ft. Duquense Boulevard and 9th Street, trying to get home in time for the 3rd period. The Pens, of course, pulled it out in an intense final six minutes when the Wings attacked and attacked, and the Pens were just trying to buttress the fort. The intensity was heightened by the fact that it was Game 7.

Game 7s are one of the most special things we get in return for our love of sports. When two teams are so evenly matched that it comes down to one game and often times one pitch or shot, the moment rises in importance. The passion and grit come to the forefront. These are guys that have played over 100 games in basketball and hockey, and around 180 in baseball, and they are on the biggest stages they will ever see. The mistakes are magnified; the heroes deified; the memories crystallized. Everybody remembers game 7. EVERYBODY. Even for those bandwagon Penguin fans like myself, the memory will last long after the Stanley Cup Champs t-shirt shrinks and fades.

Pittsburgh has regained the title "City of Champions". We remain a city of many monikers (Steel City, Iron City, Robo-burgh, America's Most Livable, The City of Bridges) but this one remains my favorite, and we've wrested it back from Boston. To have the Steelers and Pens win within months of each other is incredible; both major pro sports champions are from Pittsburgh at this point of 2009. And the point that I keep coming back to is this: the last time the Pens won the Cup, 1992, was the same time the Bucs last made the playoffs.

Since that time, the Bucs of course have had 17 losing seasons in a row. For a fan like me, this is torture, and in a perverse way it is multiplied by these other teams winning coupled fact that I really consider myself more of a Bucs fan than any other 'burgh team. Watching the ferver that the Pens and Steelers create excites me for many reasons, but probably none more so than it reminds me why I remain an ardent Pirate supporter. Some day, I hope that my favorite team from the 'burgh has the same zealous following currently enjoyed by our other pro teams. I have no doubt that it will happen; it's just been a really, really, really long wait, and it won't be over for another few years. At least maybe my other favorite team, the Pitt men's hoops team, can be more successful.

Speaking of men's hoops...Scottie Reynolds really screwed up what could have been an even better year for 'burgh sports. His lame attempt at cementing March fame kept Pitt out of their first real Final Four. Even so, Jamie Dixon led his team deep into March and continues to build a winning program. While constantly let down by the Bucs around mid-May, Pitt hoops is able to hold my attention and engender my support for an entire season; at some point, due to the battle of attrition, they may have to pass the Bucs as my favorite team in Pittsburgh.

At least none of my sports dreams are really hitched to the fading star of Dave Wannstedt.

The Golden Era of Pennsylvania Sports

Many folks on this blog have Pennsylvania ties, so expect some level of local-ism to show up now and then.

I was thinking about how it's been a nice run for the Steelers, Pens, and Phillies lately --
But how about 1975-1985 in Pennsylvania?





Pro Football:
1975 - Steelers win super bowl
1976 - Steelers win super bowl
1979 - Steelers win super bowl
1980 - Steelers win super bowl
1981 - Eagles win NFC championship; play in their first super bowl

College Football:
1976 - Pitt Panthers are AP and near consensus national champions.
1980 - Pitt Panthers are NY Times and other media national champions (not AP though)
1981 - Pitt wins minor national championship foundation title retroactively; Penn State wins minor dunkel national title
1982 - Penn State is AP and near consensus national champion
1985-86 season - Penn State is AP national champions again.

Pro Hockey:
1975 - Flyers win their second straight Stanley cup
1976 - Flyers reach the finals again
1979 - Flyers reach the finals again
1985 - Flyers reach the finals again

Pro Baseball:
1975 - Pirates in nlcs (Phillies second)
1976 - Phillies in nlcs (Pirates second)
1977 - Phillies in nlcs (Pirates second)
1978 - Phillies in nlcs (Pirates second)
1979 - Pirates win their 5th and most recent world series championship. They also have have the national league mvp, nl championship series mvp, the world series mvp, and the all star game mvp.
1980 - Phillies win their first world series championship.
1981 - Phillies win nl east in strike shortened season
1983 - Phillies "wheeze kids" go to world series, lose.

Pro Basketball:
1975 - Sixers return to the playoffs for the first time in 5 years
1976 - Sixers go to the NBA finals, only to lose to Bill Walton's Trailblazers.
1977 - Lose to Bullets, who win nba title
1980 - Go to NBA finals again, lose to lakers.
1981 - Go to NBA finals again (with Celtics fans chanting "beat LA", in a rare moment of east coast solidarity) and lose to Lakers
1982 - Moses takes over! Sixers go 12-1 in nba playoffs, "fo fi fo", winning it all.
1985 - New look Barkley sixers return to eastern conference finals again.

College Basketball:
1985 - Villanova Wildcats become lowest seeded team to ever win a national title.

Boxing:
1983 - "Easton Assassin" Larry Holmes wins Heavyweight Championship.

MVP's:
1975, 1976 - Bobby Clarke
1978 - Dave Parker
1978 - Terry Bradshaw
1979 - Willie Stargell
1980, 1981 - Mike Schmidt
1981 - Dr. J
1983 - Moses Malone

Sports Movies Filmed in and/or Set in Pennsylvania during this time:
1976 - Rocky
1977 - Slapshot
1979 - The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh
1979 - Rocky 2
1982 - Rocky 3
1983 - All the Right Moves
1985 - Rocky 4

Has any state ever matched this output in a 10 year period?