1.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Deconstructing-The-grisly-demise-of-Tressel-Ba?urn=ncaaf,189322
"Jim Tressel is a dinosaur, and like all dinosaurs, not like for this world. And if I was the multi-talented Terrelle Pryor, stuck in the straitjacket of the OSU offense, I'd be thinking long and hard about where I might transfer to."
2.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/
and
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
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The connection? Obviously there are other factors at play, but Pete "big balls" Carroll has beaten Jim Tressel yet again. Was anyone surprised?
I know this is oversimplifying it, but its a blog: why don't coaches go for it more often on 4th down? Why don't they generally take more risks, when they see coaches like Carroll and Belichick (I know, he's a cheater) succeed year in and out?
My guess is two factors:
1. Lack of job security. If you lose a game because you took a risk other coaches normally don't take, it's easy to point to that moment and say you blew it. If you played conservative and lost, its too easy for the fans and media to say "they were just outplayed."
2. Generally, statistical analysis in football is behind baseball at this point. I'm not sure if this will change, but there is a fairly conservative organizational culture around football, especially in the NFL I'd argue.
Chris, I totally agree with this. Coaches are way too cautious, and it is to save their own hide. I wish more coaches would go to their owners/GMs and say, "I'm going to go for it a lot on fourth down, and here's why. If its a failure, I'll take the fall, but when people second guess specific calls, here is my rationale."
ReplyDeleteMaybe Belichick read this post before the Indy game!
ReplyDelete